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文章摘要
基于双层多目标决策的规模风电并网系统连锁故障路径预测
Cascading fault path prediction of large-scale wind power grid-connected system based on bi-level multi-objective decision
Received:June 16, 2022  Revised:July 04, 2022
DOI:10.19753/j.issn1001-1390.2025.04.018
中文关键词: 规模风电  连锁故障预测  概率潮流  双层多目标决策
英文关键词: large-scale wind power, cascading fault prediction, probabilistic power flow, bi-level multi-objective decision
基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(51677071); 国网河北省电力公司科技项目(kjcb2021-003)
Author NameAffiliationE-mail
WU Yuhang* School of Electrical Electronic Engineering,North China Electric Power University 1329666714@qq.com 
LIU Xiangyu School of Electrical & Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University
State Grid Hebei Electric Power Research Institute, Shijiazhuang 
liuxiangyu1234@163.com 
WANG Tao School of Electrical Electronic Engineering,North China Electric Power University wtwxx@126.com 
GU Xueping School of Electrical Electronic Engineering,North China Electric Power University xpgu@ncepu.edu.cn 
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中文摘要:
      风电出力的不确定性增大了电网连锁故障路径预测的难度,因此基于双层多目标决策提出一种适用于规模风电并网系统的连锁故障路径预测方法。所提方法利用概率潮流模型刻画了风电出力波动和负荷波动等不确定性因素,并将其作为连锁故障路径预测的计算基础。提出一种双层多目标决策模型确定后继故障,模型将故障概率和故障后果分别作为上、下层决策目标,根据后继故障的帕累托最优解确定符合条件的连锁故障路径集。以IEEE 39节点系统为例对所提方法进行验证,结果表明:基于双层多目标决策的预测方法能同时预测出发生概率较高和故障后果较为严重的两类连锁故障路径,有利于指导规模风电并网系统的连锁故障防控工作。
英文摘要:
      The uncertainty of wind power output increases the difficulty of cascading fault path prediction. Therefore, this paper proposes a cascading fault path prediction method for large-scale wind power grid-connected system based on bi-level multi-objective decision. The probabilistic power flow model is used to describe the uncertain factors such as wind power output fluctuation and load fluctuation, and it is used as the calculation basis of cascading fault path prediction. A bi-level multi-objective decision-making model is proposed to determine the subsequent fault. The model takes the fault probability and fault consequence as the upper and lower decision-making objectives respectively, and determines the qualified cascading fault path set according to the Pareto optimal solution of the subsequent fault. The IEEE 39-bus system is taken as an example to verify the proposed method. The results show that the prediction method based on bi-level multi-objective decision can predict two types of cascading fault paths with high probability of occurrence and serious fault consequences at the same time, which is helpful to guide the prevention and control of cascading faults in large-scale wind power grid-connected systems.
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