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文章摘要
基于Copula理论及等概率分段的有源配电网概率潮流计算
Probabilistic power flow calculation of active distribution network based on Copula theory and equal probability segmentation
Received:May 12, 2024  Revised:June 05, 2024
DOI:j.issn1001-1390.2025.07.006
中文关键词: 新能源  概率潮流  Copula理论  Rosenblatt变换  全概率公式
英文关键词: new energy, probabilistic power flow, Copula theory, Rosenblatt transformation, total probability formula
基金项目:国家电网有限公司科技项目(520600230013)。
Author NameAffiliationE-mail
JIA Yudong North China Electric Power University w1876071785@163.com 
LIU Wenbin Electric Power Research Institute of Shandong Electric Power Company 17615800860@163.com 
MU Xizhen North China Electric Power University mxz1751879331@163.com 
MU Xiaobin State Grid Smart Grid Research Institute Co, Ltd muxb2009@126.com 
ZHU Yongqiang* North China Electric Power University zyq@ncepu.edu.cn 
XIA Ruihua North China Electric Power University supplyports@sina.com 
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中文摘要:
      针对有源配电网中源荷双侧强不确定性场景,文中提出一种基于Copula理论及等概率分段的有源配电网概率潮流计算方法。通过Copula函数和Rosenblatt逆变换实现输入随机变量相关性的描述和独立性的转换。为使基于Copula理论的相关性分析易于进行,不再将机组出力离散化,而是将机组出力概率模型在其出力区间进行分段化处理,求取分段区间下的条件概率密度函数。提出基于等概率原则的区间分段方法进行区间分段,通过全概率公式,将完整概率潮流计算分解成多个高精度的条件概率潮流计算,采用Gram-Charlier(GC)级数实现概率分布函数的拟合。
英文摘要:
      Aiming at the scenario of strong uncertainty on both sides of source and load in active distribution network, this paper proposes a probabilistic power flow calculation method of active distribution network based on Copula theory and equal probability segmentation. Through Copula function and Rosenblatt inverse transformation, the description of the correlation of input random variables and the transformation of independence are realized. In order to make the correlation analysis based on Copula theory easy to carry out, the unit output is no longer discretized, but the unit output probability model is segmented in its output interval to obtain the conditional probability density function under the segmented interval. An interval segmentation method based on equal probability principle is proposed for interval segmentation. Through the total probability formula, the complete probability power flow calculation is decomposed into multiple high-precision conditional probability power flow calculations, and the Gram-Charlier (GC) series is used to fit the probability distribution function.
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